Demand Side Production Enthusiasm Shows Polarization Can Petroleum Coke Market Prices Continue to Rise

Introduction: Affected by the demand-side purchasing sentiment, the domestic petroleum coke market prices in China mainly showed an upward trend since entering July. As of July 10, among them, the 1# high-end low-sulfur coke saw the largest price increase, with the average price of 1# high-end coke reaching 3,971 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 8.3%.

1. Petroleum Coke Average Price Mainly Rises, Benefiting Refinery Production Profits

The average price of the domestic petroleum coke market mainly showed an upward trend. As of July 10, the domestic average price of 1# petroleum coke was 3,735 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.19%; the average market price of 2# was 3,380 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 4.12%; the average market price of 3# was 2,960 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 3.21%; the average market price of 4# was 1,807 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%; and the average market price of 5# was 1,195 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.29%. The rise in petroleum coke prices is beneficial to the profits of coking units. At present, the theoretical profit of domestic delayed coking is in a profitable state.

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The domestic petroleum coke supply increased slightly to 519,600 tons, with a growth rate of 3.22%. This was mainly due to the resumption of production of a total of 3.8 million tons/year delayed coking units in Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhongli Binzhou and Qirun Petrochemical in the early stage. The decrease in CNOOC's supply was mainly due to the of the 1 million tons/year delayed coking unit in Taizhou Petrochemical.The operating rate in the field increased, which is beneficial to the shipment of petroleum coke.

2. The Operating Rate of Individual Demand Sides Is Expected to Rise

The operating rate of negative electrode enterprises reached 73%, and the improved production enthusiasm of negative electrode enterprises is conducive to the domestic shipment of petroleum coke. In the direction of aluminum carbon, the operation of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand, which is beneficial to the shipment of indicator-grade petroleum coke. In the direction of steel carbon, the operating rate of graphite electrodes remains at a low level, and the operating rate of electric arc furnaces continues to decline, currently at 63.59%. Some steel plants are in a state of profit loss, with relatively low production enthusiasm, and some steel plants have taken the initiative to choose a slight production reduction or shutdown.

To sum up, the improved production enthusiasm in the new material field has led to competition for some resources, which provides favorable support for petroleum coke prices. In the short term, the domestic petroleum coke market prices will mainly maintain a stable upward trend.